Pennsylvania appears to be the make or break state in the 2020 cycle. It is almost certain that whichever candidate wins Pennsylvania will also win the election outright. From Philadelphia to the blue collar streets of Pittsburgh to the post-industrial city of Scranton, Pennsylvania contains a diverse array of voters whom Democrats hope will deliver them back the White House. For Joe Biden, Pennsylvania is personal. Biden was born in Scranton and he has made his blue collar roots a focal point of his campaign.
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Make no mistake, Ohio is going to be a tough slog for Joe Biden. Despite some favorable polls coming out in favor of Biden, it is likely that Donald Trump takes Ohio. Of the rust belt states, Ohio is likely to be Trump’s best performing state. Although Democrat Senator Sherrod Brown won reelection in 2018, the Democrats also lost the Governor’s race and several winnable Congressional races. In 2016, Donald Trump won Ohio by a 51.69% to 43.56% margin and there has been little indication that the Democrats have made enough inroads since 2016 to retake the state.
Read MoreProgressives are seeking to gain momentum in what has largely been a bust of a 2020 campaign season. Kentucky’s primary was initially slated to take place in May but the outbreak of Covid-19 forced the Commonwealth to postpone their contest. While many progressives criticized the postponement at the time, the change in date is absolutely the only reason that Charles Booker has been so competitive in Kentucky.
Read MoreMcSally’s troubles are partly due to the circumstances of which she became a Senator. McSally was the Republican nominee for Senator in 2018, but was defeated by Democrat Kyrsten Sinema. After her 2018 defeat, through a number of unique circumstances, McSally was appointed Senator by Republican Governor Doug Ducey to replace John McCain who had died with over four years remaining on his term.
Read MoreWith its exurban makeup, the 14th Congressional District of Illinois will represent a critical test for Republicans seeking to regain lost ground from the 2018 Midterm elections. The 2020 race between incumbent Democrat Lauren Underwood and perennial Republican challenger Jim Oberweis is expected to be one of the tightest races in the country…
Read MoreMillennial voters long served as the backbone of Sanders’ support, and strong turnout among this group was mandatory for his victory. Sanders, however, was unable to turn out younger voters to the polls like he did in 2016, and, comparatively, millennial voters made up a much smaller share of the electorate in 2020… This disparity in turnout among the two age groups had disastrous consequences for Sanders, particularly in Texas.
Read MoreThe most closely watched race of the March 10th primaries will no doubt be Michigan. Michigan not only has the largest total of delegates at 125 (36% of the March 10th delegates) but it contains a high amount of symbolism for Bernie Sanders. Sanders pulled off a truly massive upset in Michigan, in 2016, when he overcame a 21-point polling deficit to claim victory over Hillary Clinton. In 2020, Sanders once again faces almost the exact same polling deficit…
Read MoreIndividual previews and predictions for all fourteen Super Tuesday states.
Read MoreSouth Carolina will provide the first true test of Joe Biden’s support among black voters. For the entire 2020 campaign we have heard endlessly about Biden’s strength among black voters. So far, however, Biden has been unable to utilize his support among black voters. Iowa and New Hampshire contained a miniscule number of black voters, while in Nevada, Latinos are the dominant minority group. Now, in the fourth contest of the Democratic Primary, we will finally be able to gauge where black voters stand in the 2020 Primary.
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